Nominal Low is Behind Us! - Fri, 03 Sep 2010 06:20:32 -0700
Global stock markets are in a multi-year bull-market and nominal prices are likely to appreciate for several more months. In our view, we are currently amidst a normal multi-week consolidation phase and most stock markets are likely to ...
safehaven@safehaven.com (Safehaven.com) |
Buy and Hold Still Holds - Fri, 03 Sep 2010 05:41:20 -0700
The US market is in sorry shape. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 are presently no higher than they were 12 years ago. If you factor in 12 years worth of inflation, then these results are abysmal.
safehaven@safehaven.com (Safehaven.com) |
The Last Blistering Blast - Fri, 03 Sep 2010 05:32:45 -0700
As the last blistering blast of the summer season blows itself out both literally and metaphorically, heading into the long Labor Day weekend, the stock market is trying to do the same.
safehaven@safehaven.com (Safehaven.com) |
What Auto Sales Tell Us About Future Economic Growth - Fri, 03 Sep 2010 05:30:01 -0700
The vast majority of Americans, including most investors, fail to grasp how far the economy is currently operating below historic norms. This year, for example, approximately 600,000 new housing units will be constructed compared to ...
safehaven@safehaven.com (Safehaven.com) |
Stock Funds: On-Off Relationship or Long-Term Affair? - Thu, 02 Sep 2010 11:48:10 -0700
Have you been a long-term holder of one or more stock funds that haven't done well for quite some time? Well, if so, you have a lot of company.
safehaven@safehaven.com (Safehaven.com) |
Prelude To Meltdown: An Interview With Bert Dohmen - Thu, 02 Sep 2010 11:04:42 -0700
When Bert Dohmen talks, smart investors listen. In 2007 when most investment analysts and economists were downplaying the developing credit market troubles, Bert warned investors that the probability was very high that the troubles ...
safehaven@safehaven.com (Safehaven.com) |
Donkey of the Month: Obama, Paris Hilton, Senator Chris Dodd or Comedian Chris Tucker - Thu, 02 Sep 2010 10:40:02 -0700
We live in very difficult times, which continue to produce some frustrating but entertaining actions by people. The month of August 2010 was another busy month of men and women acting poorly and it's my turn to vent my frustration ...
safehaven@safehaven.com (Safehaven.com) |
Silver About To Break Out Big! - Thu, 02 Sep 2010 07:25:29 -0700
Silver is one asset class I do not cover very often, but have been largely bullish on since $6 an ounce many years ago. It can be considered "poor man's Gold" as they say. I believe Silver is about to stage a pretty large advance based loosely on ...
safehaven@safehaven.com (Safehaven.com) |
Investor Sentiment Follows Party Lines - Thu, 02 Sep 2010 07:23:54 -0700
Through history, while extreme opinions sometime come to dominate political or business climates, they trend always back to the center. This theory of mean reversion applies across a great deal of disciplines, from meteorology and chemistry to ...
safehaven@safehaven.com (Safehaven.com) |
Jobless Claims Decline, But Still Too High for Major Impact Employment Outlook - Thu, 02 Sep 2010 06:55:34 -0700
New U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims declined last week according to the government, but were still too high to have a strong impact on the weak labor market.
safehaven@safehaven.com (Safehaven.com) |
China MFG Growth Fuels Global Bullishness... - Thu, 02 Sep 2010 06:43:34 -0700
Wednesday's trading saw a mad rush to get long with the major indexes opening up more than one percent. The market gapped up based on Asian and European markets trading higher before U.S. markets opened.
safehaven@safehaven.com (Safehaven.com) |
SP500 and Gold At Crucial Pivot Points - Wed, 01 Sep 2010 20:12:57 -0700
Wednesday was a big session with better than expected manufacturing surging the market 3%. In this article I will do a quick technical take on the current situation for the SP500 and gold as they are both trading at a key resistance level.
safehaven@safehaven.com (Safehaven.com) |
Stock Market Trends: Bull, Bear, or Crash? - Wed, 01 Sep 2010 18:57:08 -0700
Today's rise in the stock market seems to have put in a near term bottom by advancing over the recent gap in price @ 1,071 on the SP500. Today, we had a strong move covering the gap resistance and the market closed right at its high ...
safehaven@safehaven.com (Safehaven.com) |
Bernanke Out of Bullets, But Not Bombs - Wed, 01 Sep 2010 16:57:04 -0700
Our central bank controls the printing press, so it has the ability to create money at will and use it to purchase anything it desires. It can and does purchase longer-dated Treasuries and other bank assets like home loans.
safehaven@safehaven.com (Safehaven.com) |
Oil's Out, Find Out What's In - Wed, 01 Sep 2010 16:27:37 -0700
The International Energy Association (IEA) has spoken. What the world needs now is a clean energy technology revolution. June saw the 2010 launch of IEA's biannual report, Energy Technology Perspectives. Speaking at the launch was ...
safehaven@safehaven.com (Safehaven.com) |
Markets Appear Ripe for a Sustainable Bullish Turn - Wed, 01 Sep 2010 16:19:14 -0700
Early September is very important for the financial markets; especially for the bulls. Numerous elements are in place for a rally to take hold now. The markets have been weak and the bears have been in control. If the bulls cannot make ...
safehaven@safehaven.com (Safehaven.com) |
I Renounce Monetarism (with apologies to Mr. Lippman of Pendant Publishing) - Wed, 01 Sep 2010 15:42:22 -0700
Monetarism, the notion that the behavior of some definition of the money supply is a leading indicator of aggregate demand, is akin to malaria. Once it is in your "system," it is very difficult to totally purge it from ...
safehaven@safehaven.com (Safehaven.com) |
It's The West Coast Heavy Weight Bout of 2010: Round 4 - Wed, 01 Sep 2010 13:14:02 -0700
Nowhere in the country is the insanity as crazy as The Bubble State of California: It's "The West Coast" Heavy Weight Bout of 2010. We easily have the biggest state budget deficit at $19 billion and no traction on a solution.
safehaven@safehaven.com (Safehaven.com) |
Does the Bull Market End Now or Continue On? - Wed, 01 Sep 2010 11:38:45 -0700
The last two Bull markets, including this one, have one thing is common ... what is it? A quick look at the rectangle areas on today's Monthly S&P 500 chart gives you the answer. A level of 1103 on the S&P has been a pausing and ...
safehaven@safehaven.com (Safehaven.com) |
Investing Wisely - - Investment Basics - Course 101 - Wed, 01 Sep 2010 11:34:25 -0700
This is the first course in a series of 38 called "Investment Basics" - created by Professor Steve Bauer, a retired university professor and asset manager ...
safehaven@safehaven.com (Safehaven.com) |
Thank You China - Wed, 01 Sep 2010 08:15:58 -0700
We are in Buy Mode, looking for the markets to move higher into 9/7 to 9/14. Bullish overnight economic news from China (and lesser so Australia) has lifted the market in the morning.
safehaven@safehaven.com (Safehaven.com) |
Running in Place... - Wed, 01 Sep 2010 07:36:24 -0700
Tuesday's trading saw trading volume increase to healthy levels. Even though the major indexes closed flat to lower for the day, the major indexes closed higher than their gap down opens. Once again, equities are poised to run higher.
safehaven@safehaven.com (Safehaven.com) |
Bullish Australian, China Economic News Boosts Equities - Wed, 01 Sep 2010 07:28:05 -0700
Stocks rallied overnight after the Australian economy showed more than expected second quarter growth and China's PMI was reported stronger than estimated. Both reports triggered a surge in demand for higher risk assets overnight ...
safehaven@safehaven.com (Safehaven.com) |
You Dream Of Columbus - Wed, 01 Sep 2010 07:15:45 -0700
Very much like the voyage of Columbus, this new world the current generation of investors is now discovering has not been uninhabited. "People" have before been in this new world of economic and financial market circumstances.
safehaven@safehaven.com (Safehaven.com) |
Rounding Up the Culprits of Rising Prices - Tue, 31 Aug 2010 21:00:27 -0700
So, it looks like the truth will never be known, so my advice is to keep buying gold, silver and oil until it all gets sorted out, one way or the other. By that I mean, of course, that one way is to end badly, and the other way is to end very badly.
safehaven@safehaven.com (Safehaven.com) |
Being Negative Might Be A Positive - Tue, 31 Aug 2010 20:53:08 -0700
Neither stocks nor bonds responded meaningfully to the release of the Fed minutes, which said approximately what we all thought they would. "Many Fed officials" said the downside risks to the recovery had increased, and "several members" said ...
safehaven@safehaven.com (Safehaven.com) |
CFTC Forex Rules In Effect October 18, 2010 - Tue, 31 Aug 2010 15:19:57 -0700
After much anticipation forex traders and brokerages in the United States can finally breathe a sigh of relief. On August 30, 2010, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission ("CFTC" or "Commission") published its final rules ...
safehaven@safehaven.com (Safehaven.com) |
Bullish Cup and Handle Patterns In Gold and Silver, Pay Attention to High Quality Explorers - Tue, 31 Aug 2010 15:05:34 -0700
The global debt crisis and the war on deflation by the Federal Reserve is causing precious metals to approach a key resistance level. Gold is nearing a 52 week high while silver is close to breaking $19. A break above these levels ...
safehaven@safehaven.com (Safehaven.com) |
What's The Message? - Tue, 31 Aug 2010 15:00:05 -0700
Market analysis doesn't need to be too complicated to be good, and probably simpler is better. Heck, we have just spent the past 12 months listening to every analyst, commentator and pundit under the sun tell us why this market is ...
safehaven@safehaven.com (Safehaven.com) |
Time to Go Global - Tue, 31 Aug 2010 14:05:38 -0700
If you live in the U.S., your taxes are about to get much, much, higher. And I'm not talking about the Bush tax cuts set to expire at the end of this year. I'm talking about a structural deficiency in the tax base that will force the ...
safehaven@safehaven.com (Safehaven.com) |
3 Reasons Now is Not the Time to Speculate in Stocks - Tue, 31 Aug 2010 14:03:15 -0700
Perhaps the number one precaution to take at the start of a deflationary crash is to make sure that your investment capital is not invested "long" in stocks, stock mutual funds, stock index futures, stock options or any other ...
safehaven@safehaven.com (Safehaven.com) |
Tax Rates, Business Investment, Personal Saving Rates: We Report, You Decide - Tue, 31 Aug 2010 13:59:55 -0700
From 1955 through 2008, the median eight-year compound annualized growth in real business fixed investment expenditures was 4.325%. In the eight years ended 2008 the compound annualized growth in real business fixed investment expenditures ...
safehaven@safehaven.com (Safehaven.com) |
Why the Bank of Japan's Economic Stimulus is Good For the Gold Price - Tue, 31 Aug 2010 13:50:28 -0700
The issue this week was the meeting of the Bank of Japan where they debated what to do about a Yen strong enough to damage Japanese exports, the mainstay of the Japanese economy. It was agreed that Japan will spend 920 billion yen ...
safehaven@safehaven.com (Safehaven.com) |
A Caution Condition From the NYSE 'New Highs'? - Tue, 31 Aug 2010 13:42:14 -0700
Conditions are getting close to a decision point on the New York Stock Exchange's daily New Highs. On June 29th, the New Highs had hit a low and started an ascent that lasted until August 2nd. when they peaked and started trending down.
safehaven@safehaven.com (Safehaven.com) |
The Sterling Way - Tue, 31 Aug 2010 11:12:04 -0700
The Sterling has breached 154 today but that doesn’t paint a direct route to 150 yet! Instead the current price action is paving the way for the next 400 point move. If price can hold at current levels we have a chance to travel to 158 but...
safehaven@safehaven.com (Safehaven.com) |
An Addendum to the 'Flations - Gold $5,000 - Tue, 31 Aug 2010 10:07:15 -0700
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke delivered a much-anticipated speech on Friday, August 27, 2010. There was no reason to think this talk would be more or less important than his other talks except for the degree of hysteria whipped up ...
safehaven@safehaven.com (Safehaven.com) |
Gold: The Big Picture Gets Bigger! - Tue, 31 Aug 2010 08:56:27 -0700
Stratfor, one of the most respected information services in the world, announced that the head of the Chinese central bank might be missing, and now it's hitting the mainstream media, although the spin machines are in power mode downplaying ...
safehaven@safehaven.com (Safehaven.com) |
China and Copper - Tue, 31 Aug 2010 07:45:26 -0700
In this author's opinion, China, and to a lesser extent India and other developing nations, are responsible for the largest and longest base metals bull market the world has ever experienced.
safehaven@safehaven.com (Safehaven.com) |
On The Verge Of A Global Market Meltdown - Tue, 31 Aug 2010 07:19:25 -0700
We are in Buy Mode, looking for the markets to move higher into 9/7 to 9/14. Overnight, the move lower in the Nikkei was strong and has influenced our markets by causing lower prices in overnight trade. The dollar is slightly weaker, bonds ...
safehaven@safehaven.com (Safehaven.com) |
MA Fails to Inspire... - Tue, 31 Aug 2010 06:38:53 -0700
Monday's trading saw more bearish sentiment as Friday's heavier volume gains were eclipsed by Monday's light volume "give it back" day. With financials being the worst sector, both the Bank Index and Regional Bank Index achieved their ...
safehaven@safehaven.com (Safehaven.com) |
Gold Stocks - The Long-term Perspective - Mon, 30 Aug 2010 20:12:57 -0700
There are clearly similarities between the first half of the 1960s-1970s bull market and what's happened over the past 10 years, so the BGMI's performance during the 1970s could be a useful model over the years ahead.
safehaven@safehaven.com (Safehaven.com) |
Honest Money Gold and Silver Report: Market Wrap Week Ending 8/27/10 - Mon, 30 Aug 2010 19:29:40 -0700
Stocks continued falling this week, although downside momentum has slowed. The market is testing its lows from May and June. If this level does not hold, then a test of the July lows is likely. As of now, it looks like the lows will hold.
safehaven@safehaven.com (Safehaven.com) |
Doomster Diving Now Dirty Deed Done Cheap? - Mon, 30 Aug 2010 16:02:10 -0700
Everyone is now agreed: The future looks grim. Not only are perhaps as much as a third of the American population feeling chastened and sobered by receding real estate values and joblessness, even millionaires have again become sombre.
safehaven@safehaven.com (Safehaven.com) |
How to Invest in Junior Gold and Silver Companies - Mon, 30 Aug 2010 15:39:30 -0700
The various large-cap gold stock indices are readying for a major breakout. As we’ve noted, this isn’t just a breakout through 2008 highs but a breakout through highs dating back to 1980. Yes, there are some gold stock indices like ...
safehaven@safehaven.com (Safehaven.com) |
Digging Holes And Filling Them Back In, Indeed - Mon, 30 Aug 2010 15:19:25 -0700
Ordinarily, when I come back after a week or two of vacation I feel mentally refreshed and I feel as if I have a clearer view of what is going on in the economy (not that this sense actually improves my forecasting any, but it feels better ...
safehaven@safehaven.com (Safehaven.com) |
Silver Producers Enter Profitable Phase - Mon, 30 Aug 2010 14:35:17 -0700
The latest quarterly (Q2, ended June 30, 2010) results from a number of silver producers confirm that they are now entering a phase of sustainable profits. We will look at several companies and try to make sense of the numbers as well ...
safehaven@safehaven.com (Safehaven.com) |
QE II Not Enough To Save Credit Cycle - Mon, 30 Aug 2010 13:47:09 -0700
QE II Not Enough To Save Credit Cycle... that should read widely anticipated Quantitative Easing (QE) is not enough to save the economy froma contraction in the larger credit cycle, however titles need to be catchy. And that's basically ...
safehaven@safehaven.com (Safehaven.com) |
Iraq - An End or an Escalation? - Mon, 30 Aug 2010 13:09:38 -0700
Amid much fanfare last week, the last supposed "combat" troops left Iraq as the administration touted the beginning of the end of the Iraq War and a change in the role of the United States in that country. Considering the continued ...
safehaven@safehaven.com (Safehaven.com) |
Dow Jones - Ping-Pong... - Mon, 30 Aug 2010 12:08:30 -0700
The Dow Jones has moved in around a 1500 point range this year. Every top and bottom has been practically followed on with marginal a few hundred points hit and miss from previous tops and bottoms, especially over the last four months ...
safehaven@safehaven.com (Safehaven.com) |
Silver and Gold Fall from Favor - Mon, 30 Aug 2010 11:14:16 -0700
It seems many main stream commentators from the financial channels have abandoned the precious? Rather than beating the drum that gold is over $1000 per ounce we hear that gold is in a bubble. In these uncertain financial times selling ...
safehaven@safehaven.com (Safehaven.com) |
